Pakistan's export of agricultural products and its relationship to industrialization, energy use, and carbon emissions using an accelerated reaction time series analysis


  • Dr. Ali Khan Department of Sociology Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS)


This study aims to contribute new information to the existing body of knowledge by conducting an investigation into the causal relationships that may exist between Pakistan's agricultural exports, industrialization, urbanization, transportation, energy consumption, and carbon emissions. In order to investigate the short-run and long- run relationships that exist between certain variables over the course of four decades, the auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) has been used to evaluate time-series data. This has been done over the course of the past four decades. To determine which way the chain of events should be followed, the Granger causality test was performed. It is possible to draw the conclusion, based on the results of the unit root test, that all of the selected variables display stationary both at the level and after having undergone first difference. This is the case both before and after the initial differentiation. The proof that co integration exists among all variables was supplied by the bound test, which was carried out with a significance threshold of 1%. On the basis of projections made for the longer term, it is projected that a rise in the amount of energy consumed will result in a rise in the amount of agricultural goods exported. The increase in urbanization, improvements in transportation infrastructure, and rising levels of carbon dioxide emissions are all to blame for the drop in agricultural exports that Pakistan has seen in recent years. The escalation of industrialization, transportation, and energy consumption leads in a commensurate rise in the exportation of agricultural products in the near time frame. This growth is due to the fact that more agricultural products are being shipped out of the country. The simultaneous effects of increased urbanization and greenhouse gas emissions have a detrimental effect on the export of agricultural goods produced in Pakistan. On the basis of the findings of our study, we propose the implementation of environmentally responsible agricultural practised, the use of renewable energy sources, the development of technology that reduces carbon emissions, and the creation of a portfolio that focuses on the export of environmentally friendly agricultural products. All of these ideas are intended to reduce the negative impact that agriculture has on the environment.